Life's a Coast

Last evening during the super bowl one of our non-football team members, during the actual game and between commercials, ran across the National Hurricane Center issuance of an advisory that a subtropical disturbance [aka, "Invest" because they invest time observing it] with the potential to develop into a tropical storm and even a "cyclone" [sic].

She managed between commercials and before the half time show to do a post on the advisory providing some excerpts from it, with a link to it to prove she was not making stuff up, noting that the excerpted info might well change as the situation changes.

Well, she was correct on that, because this morning the advisory had been downgraded to reflect a weakening of the disturbance such that it went from a moderate chance of developing into a cyclone to zero chance.

Consequently, anyone noting the post today and taking the link may be suspspicious of the "cyclone" verbiage in the excerpts.

So, in her defense she requested (from under the covers, a little hungover from finally getting into the party) that I find something more permanent to back up the original post (at this link), which I provide below -- excerpts and link to full article -- from the Wunderblog of the World Weather Report website, which always has really good info on the weather around the entire planet that you will never learn of from corporate-owned mainstream media denierologists...

Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we’d expect to see in May.

OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida.

The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this [Sunday] morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center.

Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions.

Wind shear is a high 20 – 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation.

Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 – 26.5°C (79 – 80°F), which is also marginal.

90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico...

Forecast for 90L predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida.

On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 – 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 – 25 mph.

If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance [the National Hurricane advisory gave it 30%], the winds and rains will be higher.

Local yocal SoFla weather update. As of 11 a.m. in dark, gloomy, chilly south Florida, the rain is coming down in a hard rainfall, which has been picking up steadily since it started as a drizzel sometime well before dawn. Of note, the rain stops for a short time about once every hour , just like it does with the "rain bands" of a tropical storm...

Given the above factors, it's our guess that the one to three inch prediction was low and we will no doubt have the ponding that we are now getting much too used to in what used to be the sunshine state but now seems more like the depressingly chilly swamp water state.

If you have not visited or vacationed here in a while, don't expect the weather to be like it was only a few years ago, and especially not like a few decades back when it was most always sunny and warm and pleasant in the fall and winter months.

As the non-football gal noted in her post last evening, the weather was better at the super bowl in Indy than it did here...

If you would like to peruse her original post on the intial Hurricane Center advisory, here is a link to it.

Editorial emphasis. Make clear note of the above implication that the "never seen before" super sunday tropical disturbance with moderate potential to become a "cyclone" -- in early February -- is at least four months "early", and is aberrant, but is "the new abnormal". Expect worse, for decades unfortunately, with increasing catastrophic weather events all around the planet, just like you see just about every day now, but which Republicans and their corporate-owned mainstream media denierlogists downplay, lowball, smokescreen, ignore, and just plain lie about...

Link to full article on the officialy nuts Super Sunday tropical disturbance in Yucatan Channel.

If you have any questions, suggestions, requests, or proposals, you may either send us an email at jeb@lifesacoast.com or leave a comment at the bottom of this webpage.

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